15 provocations from the future

Editor’s note: The following post arises from small group reflections from The Rise of Global Christianity, 1910–2010, taught by Dr. Todd Johnson at Boston University in the Fall of 2010. Led by doctoral students, the small groups discussed lectures given by Christian scholars in various disciplines, including significant changes that have occurred in global Christianity over the past 100 years.

Dr. Jay Gary of Regent University’s School of Global Leadership and Strategic Foresight gave tonight’s lecture on “Mapping the Future of Christianity.” He outlined a model for thinking about and planning for the future. His suggestion was to envision three possible types of future: 1) The expected future that one can forecast, 2) The alternative future which one thinks about by suggesting different scenarios of what might happen, and 3) the surprise future, the ensemble of unexpected futures that would represent a radical break from our assumptions about how things will play out. The surprise futures are the least expected and have the lowest probability of happening but would have the most impact, represent the greatest opportunity for change, of the three.

Once again our group discussion included people from around the world. We used Dr. Gary’s list of “15 Provocations from the Future” to orient our conversation. These 15 provocations were statements of dichotomies that might impact organized religion in the next 10 years. The first one we addressed was Dilemmas of Difference –Will clergy and laity engage others outside their own religious tradition, or just listen more exclusively to those with whom they agree? We all agreed that engaging with those of other religious traditions is important and that clergy should model such engagement, but we differed on how likely it is that that will happen in the future. A kind of “market” model of church means that often parishioners are consumers, selecting a church because they “fit in”, have the same values as their fellow parishioners. This creates homogeneous communities of faith and does not encourage conversations with those who disagree with us. Will congregations be focusing their conversations inward or outward?

We also addressed the issue of Extreme Climate: Will the adverse impacts on society from climate change and its proposed solutions unite nations or re-ignite culture wars? We heard from one of our members that South Korea has been forced to start dealing with this issue. There the climate has changed significantly; it’s getting warmer and there has been a shift from 4 seasons to 2. This has reduced the capacity to grow food, a factor which further aggravates the problem of the limited amount of arable land. How should the church plan for the repercussions of such change? Suggest gardening? What about the impact on North Korea? Perhaps the church in South Korea should be prepared for an influx of hungry (or starving?) people from North Korea? How would the global church engage in this situation?

Bruce Yoder, discussion moderator